In The Face Of Exchange Rate Fluctuations, What Should China'S Industry Do?
Facing the expectation of RMB appreciation, enterprises must adjust and optimize their industrial structure, reduce production costs and enhance their core competitiveness, which is the root of survival and sustainable development.
。
Under the pressure of interest groups such as the United States,
What is the trend of RMB exchange rate?
This has become a large number in China.
Bosses of export-oriented enterprises.
At the same time, the industrial structure of China's industry is also in the middle.
The outbreak of the US currency war is facing severe challenges again.
Adverse effects of RMB appreciation
Nowadays, processing enterprises, especially those facing import and export, will easily fall into a passive situation if they do not pay attention to the exchange rate.
For export oriented industries, the appreciation of the renminbi will greatly reduce the profit margins of enterprises, and some enterprises with low added value will be closed down.
The appreciation of the renminbi will restrict the export growth of enterprises, compress the profit margins of enterprises, and increase the loss of foreign exchange settlement receivable by enterprises.
Most experts in the industry predict that the appreciation rate of RMB will be
3%
~
5%
According to the China Chamber of Commerce for mechanical and electrical products import and export, such as RMB appreciation in the short term
3%
Household appliances, automobiles, mobile phones and other production enterprises will lose profits.
30%
to
50%
Many small and medium enterprises with low bargaining power will face losses.
According to the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, when other factors of production cost and price remain unchanged, the RMB appreciation will be 1 percentage points, and the profits of enterprises will also be reduced.
1%
。
Similarly, China's textile and garment enterprises are mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, and their sensitivity to RMB appreciation is extremely strong.
Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Association, said that the average net profit margin of the entire textile industry is at present.
3%
~
4%
No more or less.
5%
。
When profit margins are close to breakeven, most businesses will start to revalue the renminbi.
"
Unprofitable
"
。
To sum up, the appreciation of the renminbi means that when the export prices remain unchanged, the RMB for export receipts will be reduced, while the three costs of procurement costs and sales, management and finance have hardly changed. The result is that the profit space has been compressed or even lost.
How to avoid exchange rate risk?
At present, enterprises mainly have three ways to avoid exchange rate risk: to raise the selling price of goods, to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises themselves, and to use risk avoidance payment, settlement and financial derivatives.
One
.
Raise the selling price of goods.
Raising sales prices is the most direct and effective way to deal with the appreciation of Renminbi, but it is only an expedient measure.
According to statistics, China's garment export industry at present,
95%
The above is the production of low-end OEM products, without their own brand, low competitiveness.
In addition, some competitive and overcapacity industries have very low bargaining power, and the household appliance industry is a typical representative.
According to statistics, the whole world
80%
Air conditioning capacity,
90%
The above laser disc machine capacity and
40%
The above refrigerators and washing machines are all in China.
If you want to raise the selling price, the product will have high added value. We should make an issue on a series of issues such as product characteristics, quality and packaging, and at the same time, we should consciously establish a brand image.
Two
.
Improve the competitiveness of enterprises themselves.
According to the survey data of enterprises' willingness in the last round of appreciation cycle, there are
59.9%
Enterprises choose to improve technology to improve production efficiency and increase the added value of products in order to maintain export profits.
This shows that most small and medium-sized enterprises are willing to take a positive and fundamental way to enhance their long-term competitiveness under the pressure of appreciation.
Many enterprises choose to optimize the allocation of resources within the enterprise and reduce production costs, such as eliminating the cost of some international market agents.
In addition, the pfer of production chains to the Midwest and abroad has also become one of the measures taken by enterprises to reduce costs.
In addition, Chinese textile enterprises have built factories and production in Southeast Asia, South America and other countries and regions in addition to the adjustment of industries and enterprises themselves, and have pferred part of their capital to consume the cost of losses due to the appreciation of the renminbi.
Three
.
Rational use of financial means.
The use of risk avoidance payment, settlement and financial derivatives is also used by enterprises in the long term foreign trade.
With the acceleration of RMB appreciation, enterprises are gradually increasing their awareness of the risk of RMB appreciation and avoiding exchange losses by using hedging tools, such as export advance payment, export bills, forward settlement, foreign exchange financing and so on.
However, the proportion of enterprises using financial instruments to avoid exchange rate risk is very low.
According to statistics,
Two thousand and nine
China's export credit insurance penetration rate is about
9.7%
Below the world average.
15%
。
This is related to China's current financial risk avoidance products, less export credit insurance service outlets, low coverage, low market overall underwriting capacity and higher cost.
At present, domestic banks can provide two kinds of exchange rate hedging tools. One is the medium and long term foreign exchange settlement and sale business. Customers sign up forward contracts with the banks and deal with foreign exchange settlement or foreign exchange business at a certain time in the future according to the agreed currencies, amounts and prices. Two, foreign currency swap pactions with the people's currencies.
Two businesses can help enterprises avoid risks.
Therefore, small and medium-sized enterprises, especially export enterprises, can cultivate and enhance their comprehensive financial management consciousness.
While using financial management tools to avoid exchange rate risks, it also increases wealth for enterprises.
Actively adjust to the adjustment of industrial structure
When it comes to the appreciation of the renminbi, the Chinese seem to pay more attention to whether they should appreciate and when to appreciate.
China is known as
"
World factory
"
However, most of China's manufacturing industries are large and not strong, most of them are still at the bottom of the value-added curve in the industrial chain, and producer services are relatively backward.
In developed countries, producer services have become an important part of modern service industry. Many multinational companies' main business extends and pfers from simple manufacturing to service industries.
According to statistics, the service manufacturing enterprises in the United States account for all manufacturing enterprises.
58%
And China has only
2.2%
。
Chinese enterprises should conform to the development trend of the manufacturing industry, and integrate the upstream and downstream resources of the industrial chain, from simple processing to independent research and development, brand marketing and other service links, innovate business models, increase product added value, and realize the pformation from production type manufacturing to service oriented manufacturing.
In the final analysis, if enterprises want to be free from the interference of exchange rate, the fundamental solution lies in improving their overall strength. By strengthening brand building and the development of new products, we can digest the increased cost of exchange rate changes.
Reduce the hard cost and improve the soft cost.
Rigid cost refers to the cost of production tools, plant and facilities, etc. the soft cost refers to the cost of personnel, innovation, R & D and other links.
Soft costs often involve a relatively long time, which requires managers to have enough patience and perseverance, but they want to form their own industrial pformation. This is a stage that must be borne.
In addition, enterprises can start from improving the quality of products, constantly improving the style, function and appearance of products, and cooperate with famous foreign brands to improve the added value of brand products, so as to ease the pressure brought by RMB appreciation.
In addition, China's textile industry started its brand development three years ago, and now it has achieved initial success.
Benefits of RMB appreciation
The appreciation of the renminbi is not without merit. First, the competitive advantage of imported products will be improved, and the lower cost of imported raw materials will directly increase the profitability of enterprises.
Second, the ability to attract foreign capital will weaken, and more domestic enterprises will go out to invest and build factories abroad.
Although the RMB appreciation will increase the profitability of foreign-funded enterprises in China (in US dollars), but the corresponding new investment costs will rise, the original foreign-funded enterprises will continue to stay behind and the new capital increase will turn to other countries to invest; but the cost of domestic enterprises going abroad to invest will be
The reduction will encourage a large number of enterprises to go out, especially the home appliance industry, which is suffering from anti-dumping.
Third, the pressure on debt repayment of foreign debt will be reduced, and the profitability of a group of projects relying on foreign loans will be improved.
Take several listed companies as an example.
Two thousand and three
Annual report found that Zhang Ze power, Shanghai electric power, Liaoning Tong chemical exchange losses are
Five thousand
More than ten thousand yuan, especially the yen exchange loss of Zhang Ze electric power is more than
One point eight
Billion yuan, the annual exchange losses from the previous year will be gradually returned to profit.
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