Central Bank'S Intention To Maintain Stability, Obvious Exchange Rate Market Reform Is Imminent.

Wang Ping, director of macroeconomic research at Bank of China International Finance Research Institute (P), said that if the central bank intervened, there might be two considerations: first, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar can break the expectation of the RMB's rigid appreciation and reduce the pressure of overseas arbitrage capital inflow; two, the depreciation of the RMB will reduce the abundant liquidity in the current money market, reduce the pressure of monetary policy operation, and achieve the coordination and consistency of the exchange rate and interest rate policy objectives.

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< p > Wen Bin said that the recent fall in the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar may be due to the worries about the domestic macroeconomic trend and the debt pressure of the business sector.

Although China's export situation was good in January, the decline in PMI and PPI's negative growth for 23 consecutive months showed that the growth momentum of the real economy was insufficient.

At the same time, this year is the debt repayment peak of the financing platform of the enterprise departments and local governments. In the context of the possible breach of some trust and bond products, the demand for foreign exchange purchase by financial institutions and enterprises is less than a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > dollar assets < /a >.

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< p > < strong > effect is beneficial to export enterprises < /strong > /p >

< p > in the face of change of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > RMB exchange rate < /a >, different industries have different reactions.

It is reported that the continued pressure of RMB a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > appreciation "/a" has caused great pressure on the export of enterprises.

The low RMB exchange rate will bring positive effects on clothing enterprises and other export oriented enterprises to a certain extent.

However, some people believe that the RMB exchange rate will continue to fall, and the risk of operation of foreign students' parents and foreign exchange holders will be greater if they hold RMB to settle foreign currencies at lower cost or even earn double income from interest rate and exchange rate.

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< p > Liu Dongliang, senior analyst of China Merchants Bank's financial market, said that in general, there are two kinds of operations in the foreign exchange market: one is a normal hedge operation, such as the risk of locking the exchange rate through forward sale and exchange, because this operation is a risk avoidance demand of enterprises, so it has little relationship with exchange rate fluctuations; the other is speculation arbitrage cross-border arbitrage, they lock forward exchange rate, and take advantage of foreign currency depreciation to gain interest rate. For such enterprises, the impact of exchange rate depreciation is still very large.

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< p > < strong > or returning the real estate to the original form < /strong > /p >

< p > economist Ma Guangyuan believes that the withdrawal of QE from the US Federal Reserve may restore China's real estate to its original form.

Ma Guangyuan said that if the Federal Reserve withdrew from quantitative easing policy, China's high housing prices supported by latent international capital for many years will usher in a real heavy blow, and the renminbi will also slow down the pace of appreciation.

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Zhang Dawei, director of the Central Plains real estate market research department, said that once QE withdrew, it would bring great difficulties to overseas financing of Housing enterprises. P

For real estate, this will lead to a significant increase in financing costs and exchange rate risks.

Housing companies will have more difficulty in financing overseas, and may be forced to sell property to cope with the liquidity crisis. Large sales will increase market supply and real estate prices will drop.

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Zhou Guoping, deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Government Development Research Center, warned that as the United States gradually withdrew from quantitative easing next year, the US dollar would shift from weak to strong, thus attracting capital reflux. The international hot money may be changed again, or the domestic property market and stock market will be impacted. P

In this regard, we should strengthen the tracking and monitoring of international capital flows, and further strengthen the dynamic supervision of securities, futures and other financial markets and real estate markets.

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< p > < strong > post potential < /strong > /p >

< p > < strong > the long-term appreciation has not changed. < /strong > /p >

The P market is now most concerned about whether the devaluation tide will continue.

Traders said that investors are wait-and-see at the moment. They are judging whether the current exchange rate is short-term adjustment or the trend of RMB depreciation.

Most of the insiders interviewed by reporters said that the devaluation is only a temporary "episode". The basic factors supporting the long-term appreciation of the renminbi remain unchanged.

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< p > Wen Bin believes that whether or not the devaluation has central bank intervention, it is short term and phased.

The next trend of RMB depends on two factors: first, the security of RMB assets.

After the two sessions this year, a number of reform policies will be implemented to ensure the realization of the goal of economic growth this year. This is the fundamental guarantee for solving the problem of excessive debt pressure in the real economy sector.

The two is the driving factor of interest margin.

The risk-free rate of return in China and the developed countries will remain at around 200 points, which has strong attraction for fixed income investors.

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< p > Zhao Qingming said that in the process of RMB exchange rate from a managed floating exchange rate to a free floating exchange rate, in the process of capital account convertibility and exchange rate marketization, the appreciation of the renminbi must be a general direction, and the depreciation is only a "small episode".

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