The Central Bank Has Invested A Lot Of Liquidity Into The Market Through Open Operation.

In January 7th, the central bank website announced that it would carry out the 70 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation in the form of interest rate bidding, with a term of seven days and a winning rate of 2.25%.

A day ago, in January 5th, the central bank had launched a 130 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, winning the bid interest rate of 2.25%.

According to data statistics, this week only 10 billion yuan reverse buy back expires.

So in the first week of the year, the central bank delivered 190 billion yuan liquidity to the market through open operation, a record high of nearly four months.

The liquidity of the domestic market is closely related to the change of the RMB exchange rate market.

In January 7th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.5646, down 332 basis points from the previous day, and has fallen for eighth consecutive days.

Guotai Junan report points out that all kinds of RMB exchange rates have obviously depreciated.

Since December, although the US dollar index has been stable, the RMB exchange rate has obviously depreciated against the US dollar.

2.5%, the depreciation of the intermediate price is 2.1%, the offshore renminbi depreciation is 4.4%, and the NDF depreciation is 4.2%.

People's livelihood securities research report pointed out that the reverse buy back move is intended to maintain stability.

Increasing the operation of the open market is a basic monetary gap that is intended to hedge against the decrease in foreign exchange reserves.

However, it is difficult to replace reverse buy back, and foreign exchange reduction is a long-term and low cost liquidity from the base money and bank liabilities. Reverse repurchase is a short-term liquidity release tool, and there is capital cost, which can only play a short-term role in easing liquidity constraints.

According to statistics, foreign exchange accounted for a sharp decrease of 1 trillion and 700 billion yuan in 2015, and the central bank has hedged five times to maintain liquidity stability.

Qi Sheng, an analyst with Huachang securities, believes that in 2016, the Federal Reserve is in the interest rate cycle, and foreign exchange is still facing negative growth pressure.

Qi Sheng explained that judging the number of times and the window of practice is based on the gap in the basic currency. According to seasonal and trend factors, it calculates the monthly storage change of the central bank which has not been put into operation. The gap between the 5-6 months and 9-11 months of the Spring Festival is larger, and the probability of reduction is higher.

And the most recent one.

It happens before the end of Spring Festival.

A number of experts interviewed expect that the guidelines will become a probability event before the end of the Spring Festival.

The reason is that the market will be affected by many factors, such as devaluation of RMB, continued decrease in foreign exchange and IPO restart.

To tighten up and superimpose near Spring Festival factors, in order to maintain a reasonable and abundant mobility, the probability of lowering the standard before the Spring Festival is relatively large.

Zhao Qingming, chief economist of the China Financial Futures Exchange Research Institute, said, "the number of taps on the mobile pool is much more than that of the regulators."

The yuan continued to fall against the US dollar, and the capital outflow also exceeded the scale of last year's "811" RMB against the US dollar.

"According to the previous central bank data, from" 811 ", the scale of capital outflow has reached US $200 billion.

Zhao Qingming said.

In addition, according to historical experience, the increase of personal demand and company's cash demand will also push up the interbank market's financial stress. In addition, with the fluctuation of stock market and foreign exchange market, regulators need to ensure the stability of market liquidity.

Zhao Qingming analysis, to supplement market liquidity, the central bank has multiple channels, in addition to public operation, but also through PSL, MLF, MSF and other innovative tools, but such tools are targeted at specific banks and have a certain cost and rent-seeking space.

And the lowering rule is the general rule. At the same time, the reserve rate will be raised continuously due to the increase in hedge foreign exchange, and now the foreign exchange reserve is declining. We should reduce the deposit rate to supplement liquidity.