The Fed Will Enter The "Silent Period".

The Fed will enter the "silent period". Although the August inflation and retail sales report, which is about to be released this week, can answer many questions in the market, what is more noteworthy is the speeches of the top three Fed officials in the "silent period". Among them, the speech of Brainard, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is extremely important because she rarely shows up, and the Fed's arrangement for her speech may be to release the heavy signal.

Rosengren, chairman of the pigeon ticket commission and Boston Fed chairman, made a "Hawk" hint before the launch, plus the nuclear test of North Korea, and the US market suffered "black Friday". The three largest indexes and US debt all hit the largest single day decline since the June 24th referendum in Britain, and the VIX panic index surged 40%.

Affected by this, panic continued to spread. On Monday, Asian markets suffered "double bonds". Japan, South Korea, A shares and Hong Kong stocks all jumped to the ground and the Asian long term bond market fell sharply.

On the commodity market, oil prices continued to decline after the 4% plunge last Friday.

Thus, the Fed's rate hike is still an important factor in guiding the market trend. Before entering the "silent period", Atlanta Fed chairman Lockhart (Dennis Lockhart), Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Lockhart (Neel Kashkari) and Lael Brainard will also make a speech.

Lockhart said earlier that whether he raised interest rates in September, he had the same position as the economy.

The two quarter GDP data may lead to overreaction. At present, the economy is growing slowly at a moderate pace. If the economic data before the meeting to September will not change my economic stance, he said that the FOMC conference in September should at least seriously discuss future policy actions.

But Cash Kari pointed out that the Fed needs data before deciding to raise interest rates.

The following is the summary of the recent 10 FOMC votes Committee's position:

Renard's position is similar to Yellen's, and is regarded as a dove character. Whether Renard will remain steadfast in the pigeon camp must be focused.

It is worth noting that Renard's speech was added in a temporary arrangement.

She is a dove member of the Federal Reserve Policy Committee. She has permanent voting rights in FOMC, and does not show up frequently.

The commentary, an analysis, said that the announcement of Renard's speech might mean that she would pass a message that the Fed was closer to raising interest rates, implying that FOMC might have reached a consensus on raising interest rates.

Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said that the average growth rate of non farm employment data in recent months has exceeded the level expected by the Federal Reserve. Consumer spending and GDP growth have generally improved. The latest weakness is the poor performance of the latest ISM data. The gold market is more stable, which supports the Fed's "faster" Herb.

But there is room for further inflation.

Speaking this week, Brainard, a dovish official, will be very important. If the Hawks are speaking, the probability of raising interest rates in September will be substantially increased to 50%.

Hans Redeker, director of European foreign exchange research at Morgan Stanley, said Monday (US local time) could be a very important day, and if the Fed wants the market to prepare for an increase in interest rates, a strong stance by FOMC, which is usually more moderate, such as brenad, will be a clear hint.

Yohay Elam, founder and editor of Forex Crunch, said that in theory, Renard's unusual appearance before the Fed entered the silent period is itself a big hint. If she expressed support for raising interest rates in 9 days, even though the Fed's partial doves, the election approaches and the uneven performance of the data will be the "conclusive evidence" that market participants believe the Fed is ready to raise interest rates.

Federal funds, according to the Fed Watch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The futures trend shows that traders are expected to raise interest rates by 30% in September, 34.5% in November and 60.4% in December.