Global Market Outlook 2016 Released

The "2016 global market outlook", with the theme of "seeing far and wide, and changing wealth", points out that the investment environment for the new year will still be very difficult. As the global economy enters the end of the cycle, the global stock market may still bring positive returns, but it is near the end of the bull market. The possible bottom up of oil prices and other factors may have a significant impact on the US high-yield debt market, emerging market stocks and commodity currencies.

In China, 2016 is the opening year of 13th Five-Year. Economic restructuring will accelerate, but economic growth will slow down. The main keynote of 2016 is positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. The former aims to maintain growth, while the latter means a stable exchange rate. Due to loose monetary policy It is expected that the volatility of capital market will increase when encountering risk events, such as abnormal fluctuation of exchange rate, credit default, etc.

The Fed raised interest rates and the renminbi depreciated sharply. equity market In order to help Chinese investors obtain a more robust return on investment through global asset allocation, Standard Chartered will sell a US dollar denominated bond as an investment theme to further enrich its products. This is also the first batch of similar products sold by foreign banks in China.

General manager of Standard Chartered China wealth management department Liang Da Wei "In 2015, the domestic market was full of ups and downs, looking at the world, and did not show any outstanding investment products. As the United States increases interest rates, the risk-free interest rate moves down, and the internationalization of the renminbi accelerates, it means that volatility will remain the main theme of the capital market in 2016.

Investors must further enhance their risk awareness and risk identification ability, gradually adapt to relatively moderate rate of return, broaden their horizons, and deploy global markets with flexible strategies to achieve better investment objectives. Standard Chartered China will also continue to product innovation in response to investor demand, expand product categories, and provide professional support for Chinese investors to build their own global asset allocation.

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Although China's economy is facing a series of "transformation worries", the five substantive prescriptions of "capacity, inventory, deleveraging, cost reduction and compensation" can not be ignored. "There are many factors that affect the stock market and foreign exchange market, and the requirements for regulation and management skills are very high.

The regulatory means of developed countries such as the United States have been accumulated through numerous complicated cases. In contrast, China's regulation is still in the stage of embracing the market and exploring experience. Therefore, on the one hand, the policy itself should not be haste. On the other hand, we should not be too hasty in looking at policies. " Zhang Tiegang, a professor of economics at Central University of Finance and Economics, told our reporter about the recent financial market fluctuations.

So, does financial volatility foreshadowed the "hard landing" of China's economy? The German financial network reported that, from a historical point of view, the huge fluctuation of China's stock market can not really reflect the current situation and future of China's economy. It may reflect more about the mood and worries of Chinese investors who are mainly retail investors, including the unease of the US interest rate increase and the regional situation. The report said that since the financial crisis, China is the only big country that really implements economic reform.

Experts point out that overcapacity and excessive inventory are consistent, and the high debt ratio will bring potential risks. In carrying out the recent economic tasks, China will not only take into account the short-term impact of stock taking, but also focus on creating new supply and demand, and developing new economic growth points, so as to fill short boards and provide more employment and development opportunities.